Build a PERT chart: optimistic/most likely/pessimistic estimates, expected time calculation, and a diagram in Mermaid or Draw.io format.
What you get
- O/M/P estimates per task
- Expected time calculated with the PERT formula
- Diagram source in Mermaid or Draw.io format
Three-Point Estimation Guide
Before anything goes into the chart, the prompt walks you through getting estimates you can rely on and turns them into dates you can commit to.
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Better estimates: rules for optimistic, most likely and pessimistic values, and the common estimation traps it flags
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Full PERT math: expected time, standard deviation, forward and backward pass, slack and the critical path
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Odds of hitting a date: probability of finishing by your target date and a 90% confidence date to commit to
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Honest limits: it flags near-critical paths and says when the probability is likely too optimistic